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Saturday, November 16, 2013

Has DARPA let the "Aurora" Cat out of the Bag?

Okay, the story at the link below smells really odd to me.  The promise is to develop a Mach 10 satellite launch vehicle that can put 5000 pounds into orbit and do the entire development for $154M.  Look for yourself.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/nation/2013/11/13/space-plan-to-cut-satellite-costs/3515119/

Fine.  Let's run some back-of-an-envelope numbers.  I see no way that you're going to get 5000 pounds to orbit without an initial takeoff weight at least ten times that... likely more.  So the plane is going to weigh at least 50,000 pounds.  Back in the dark ages of Falcons, Eagles, and Tomcats, supersonic PRODUCTION airplanes cost about $1000 per pound.  That was 30 years ago, so you've got to at least double that cost nowadays for a production hypersonic launch vehicle.  This puts the production price tag - AFTER development - at no less than $100M per copy.  Initial prototype costs are typically 10 to 100 times the cost of production models, which means that unless there is something they are not telling us, you're going to need to add another zero (or two) to that development cost estimate.

But wait... look again.  The numbers would line up quite well with experience if DARPA were pulling the airplane off the shelf, with no actual development required.

Hmmmm.

Sunday, November 10, 2013

BAE Taranis UCAV Makes Maiden Flight

It's interesting that the report was apparently published the day before the information was officially released.  Maybe an "international date line" thing?  No details on the results.

http://www.janes.com/article/28899/taranis-makes-maiden-flight

Slovakian Aeromobil 2.5 Roadable Aircraft Flies

No details on the flight test are provided in the links, but unless someone has done an impressive job of animation, the video in the second link confirms that a first flight is already in the books.  Interesting approach with the swing-wing design.  The video shows what appears to me a tailwheels-first liftoff, then a crab or sideslip to the left.  It could be an unintentional sideslip due to the side-by-side seating arrangement and essentially no nose to look over to judge which way the plane is pointing.  Pitch control appeared a bit sensitive, as the plane porpoised slightly after liftoff, possibly a result of the pilot's attempt to stay in ground effect initially.  Some dutch-roll also appeared to be exhibited, unless that was just the pilot trying to find the exact front and overcontrolling.  Better looking than the Terrafugia, but a long way from proving itself after only one flight.

http://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/aeromobil-2-5-flying-car-prototype-makes-its-first-test-flight/

http://blogs.wsj.com/speakeasy/2013/10/24/slovakian-flying-car-makes-makes-short-test-flight/